KEY  INDICATORS  FOR  BULGARIA

    

1. Output year

  year

2006

2007

2008

Dec.-08

Jan.-09

Feb.-09

Mar.-09

Apr-09

May-09

Industrial confidence

balance

4.1

8.7

6.6

-5.6

-5.9

-5.8

-9.0

-6.2

-8.2

Industrial production

yoy % ch.*

6.2

9.7

0.9

-8.5

-18.4

-17.7

-16.9

-20.0

 

Gross domestic product 

yoy % ch.*

6.3

6.2

6.0

6.9

7.0

7.1

6.8

3.5

-3.5

2. Private cosumption

 

2006

2007

2008

07Q4

08Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

09Q1

Consumer confidence

balance

-34.4

-31.7

-36.6

-33.6

-35.8

-38.5

-38.5

-45.2

-52.8

 

 

2006

2007

2008

Dec.-08

Jan.-09

Feb.-09

Mar.-09

Apr-09

May-09

Retail sales

yoy % ch.*

12.7

19.4

3.5

-3.3

-1.9

-6.4

-8.3

-9.3

 

Private consumption

yoy % ch.*

8.5

5.1

4.5

3.4

5.7

5.3

5.9

1.8

-6.0

3. Investment

 

2006

2007

2008

07Q4

08Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

09Q1

Capacity utilization in industry

%

68.4

72.6

74.9

75.0

75.7

74.4

74.5

70.6

67.4

Gross fixed capital formation

yoy % ch.*

14.7

21.7

20.4

14.0

15.5

28.6

22.3

15.8

-14.1

Change in stocks

% of GDP

5.8

7.0

5.0

6.1

5.0

8.6

4.6

2.2

0.7

4. Labour market

 

2006

2007

2008

07Q4

08Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

09Q1

Unemployment

%

9.0

6.9

5.6

6.1

6.5

5.8

5.1

5.0

6.4

Employed

yoy % ch.*

4.4

4.6

3.3

4.6

4.9

3.7

3.1

1.7

-0.8

Labour costs

yoy % ch.*

4.7

16.9

19.1

19.8

21.2

21.5

19.5

18.9

19.2

Shortage of labour in industry

%

11.7

16.3

20.0

12.1

13.2

12.2

12.5

9.0

12.2

Wages

yoy % ch.*

11.3

19.5

21.7

17.9

16.3

16.7

15.8

 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                  


 Note: * yoy % ch. - growth rate compared to the same period of previous year.


Comments

 

1. Output

In June 2009 according to the NSI business inquiries the industrial confidence indicator decreased by 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The decrease was due to the more pessimistic managers’ expectations about the production activity in industry over the next 3 months. At the same time the level of stocks of finished products increased.

 

In April 2009 the Industrial Production Index decreased by 20.0% in comparison with the same month of the previous year (by preliminary data). The greatest production drop was recorded in Manufacturing (by 22.2%). In Mining and Electricity, Gas and Water the decrease was 21.0 and 13.5% respectively.

 

By preliminary operative data the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to BGN 13 961.1 million at current prices and GDP per capita was BGN 1 831.3. At the average exchange rate for the quarter of BGN 1.501134 for 1 US dollar GDP amounted to USD 9 300.4 million and respectively USD 1 220.0 per capita. GDP recalculated in Euro was EUR 7 138.2 million or EUR 936.4 per capita. The real volume of GDP dropped by 3.5% compared to the first quarter of 2008.

 

2. Private consumption

 

In April 2009 the consumer confidence indicator decreased by 7.6 percentage points in comparison with January 2009. The negativism in consumers’ assessments about the current economic situation in the country increased.

 

In April 2009 the receipts from sales in Retail Trade decreased by 9.3% compared to the same month of 2008 (by preliminary data). The drop was a result of the effects of the positive rate in Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco (2.9%) and the negative rates in all the other groups. In Retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software and 

telecommunications equipment and in Retail sale of audio and video equipment, hardware, paints and glass and electrical household appliances the drop is 15.3% and 17.3% respectively.

 

In the first quarter of 2009 for individual consumption of the population was spent 81.7% of the produced GDP. The real decrease of the indicator was by 6.0% in comparison with the respective quarter of 2008.

 

3. Investment

 

During the period January – April 2009 the average capacity utilization in industry decreased by 3.2 percentage points and was assessed to be 67.4%.

 

In the first quarter of 2009 the gross fixed capital formation was 85.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. Тhe relative share of that category is 25.9% of GDP.

 

4. Labour market

 

In the first quarter of 2009 the total number of employed persons aged 15 and over was 3 262.8 thousand and their relative share of the population of the same age was 49.5%. In comparison with the same period of 2008 the number of persons employed decreased by 27.1 thousand and the employment rate - by 0.2 percentage points.

 

In the first quarter of 2009 the unemployed persons were 222.2 thousand or 6.4% of the labour force. The unemployment rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year does not change significantly and the number of the unemployed persons decreased by 6.6 thousand.

 

According to the NSI business inquiries in June 2009 12.2% of the industrial enterprises pointed out the labour shortage as a factor limiting their activity.

 

In March 2009 the average wage and salary was BGN 579 (by preliminary data) which is 4.7% higher than the previous month. In comparison with March 2008 the growth is 15.8%.

 

5. International transactions

  year

2006

2007

2008

Dec.-08

Jan.-09

Feb.-09

Mar.-09

Apr-09

May-09

Export order books in industry

balance

-39.7

-23.3

-23.1

-29.7

-31.1

-41.0

-44.5

-48.6

-53.6

Exports of goods

mln. EUR

12011.9

13511.9

15277.5

950.1

810.4

896.3

962.8

825.5

 

Imports of goods

mln. EUR

-17574.1

-20757.2

-24035.8

-1595.5

-1154.0

-1245.4

-1408.8

-1290.5

 

Trade balance

mln. EUR

-5562.3

-7245.3

-8758.3

-645.4

-343.5

-349.1

-446.0

-464.9

 

Current account

mln. EUR

-4652.5

-7267.4

-8634.2

-867.5

-481.9

-285.9

-504.2

-418.3

 

Direct investment (net)

mln. EUR

6021.5

8283.6

5685.0

345.6

289.0

137.3

308.5

196.6

 

Portofolio investment  (net)

mln. EUR

292.2

-518.4

-469.7

26.8

-264.4

-78.0

6.9

-28.8

 

Exports of goods and services

yoy % ch.*

8.7

5.2

2.9

6.0

9.2

5.1

3.8

-6.0

-17.4

Imports of goods and services

yoy % ch.*

14.0

9.9

4.9

5.7

5.8

13.7

4.2

-3.2

-21.1

6. Prices

 

2006

2007

2008

Dec.-08

Jan.-09

Feb.-09

Mar.-09

Apr-09

May-09

HICP

yoy % ch.*

7.4

7.6

12.0

7.2

6.0

5.4

4.0

3.8

3.0

Producer prices on domestic market (in industry)

yoy % ch.*

8.7

7.9

13.3

4.7

2.2

0.5

-1.1

-2.3

-3.2

Selling price expectations in industry

balance

10.8

17.3

17.1

9.6

10.7

5.7

-3.7

1.8

1.0

Selling price expectations in retail trade

balance

18.0

27.5

36.4

6.8

-2.1

0.8

-1.0

2.0

0.7

7. Monetary and financial indicators

 

2006

2007

2008

Dec.-08

Jan.-09

Feb.-09

Mar.-09

Apr-09

May-09

SOFIBOR (3 months)

index

3.69

4.90

7.14

7.74

7.03

6.61

6.58

6.05

5.98

М37.2

yoy % ch.*

26.9

31.2

8.8

8.8

8.3

7.6

6.3

5.1

4.6

Credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and

NPISHs (loans)

yoy % ch.*

23.7

63.7

32.5

32.5

30.6

27.0

24.5

20.2

15.5

Exchange rate USD/BGN

value

1.56

1.43

1.34

1.46

1.48

1.53

1.50

1.48

1.43

Nominal effective exchange rate

index

126.4

127.5

131.2

131.2

132.3

132.7

133.3

132.6

 

                                                                                                                                                                                     



 

5. International transactions

 

According to the assessments of industrial managers in June 2009 the assurance of production with orders from abroad continues to decrease.

 

In the period January – April 2009 the current account deficit was EUR 1 690.3 million (5.0% of the projected GDP for 2009), against a deficit of EUR 2 777.6 million (8.1% of GDP) for the same period of 2008. Main factors for the current account deficit decrease were the lower (by EUR 938.2 million) trade and (by EUR 260.7 million) service deficits.

 

The trade balance in January – April 2009 was negative and it amounted to EUR 1 603.6 million (4.7% of projected GDP for 2009) compared to a deficit of EUR 2 541.8 million (7.5% of GDP) for the same period of 2008.

 

Exports of goods (FOB) in January – April 2009 amounted to EUR 3 495.1 million against EUR 5 020.9 million for the same period of 2008, decreasing by 30.4% yoy against a growth rate yoy of 27.4% for January – April 2008. Imports of goods (FOB) in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to EUR 5 098.6 million, against EUR 7 562.6 million for January – April 2008, decreasing by 32.6% yoy against a growth rate yoy of 26.2% for the same period of 2008.

 

Foreign direct investment abroad was EUR 24.0 million against EUR 436.0 million for January – April 2008. Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria was EUR 955.4 million (2.8% of projected GDP) against EUR 1 924.3 million (5.6% of GDP) for the same period of 2008. The direct investment covered 56.5% of the current account deficit against 69.3% for January – April 2008.

 

In January – April 2009 the portfolio investment - assets increased by EUR 153.1 million, compared to a decrease of EUR 37.6 million for January – April 2008. Portfolio investment – liabilities decreased by EUR 211.2 million, compared to a decrease of EUR 60.9 million for the same period of 2008.

 

In the first quarter of 2009 the external balance of goods and services was negative. The imports of goods and services exceeded the value of the exports by BGN 2 382 million. Compared to the respective quarter of 2008 the exports of goods and 

services decreased in real terms by 17.4% and the imports - by 21.1%.

 

6. Prices

 

In May 2009 the harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 3.0% in comparison with the same month of 2008, as there was an increase of prices in all observed groups with the exception of Food and non-alcoholic beverages, Transport and Communications.

 

The producer prices on domestic market in industry in May 2009 decreased by 3.2% compared to the same month of 2008. In manufacturing industry prices fell by 10.5% compared to May 2008, while in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply prices increased by 18.3%.

 

According to the conjuncture inquiry in June 2009 the managers who expect a decrease of prices are more than those that expect an increase over the next 3 months. As a result of that the balance indicator is negative (-2.9%).

7. Monetary and financial indicators

 

In May 2009 the three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR decreased in comparison with the previous month from 6.05 to 5.98%, whereas the value in May 2008 was 6.88%.

 

In May 2009 the annual growth rate of broad money

 

(monetary aggregate M3) was 4.6% compared to 5.1% in April 2009. At the end of May M3 amounted to BGN 45.162 billion (68.2% of projected GDP) compared to BGN 45.023 billion (67.9% of GDP) in April 2009. In May the narrow money M1 decreased by 13.7% annually (a drop of 12.8% in April).

 

In May the volume of the loans to non-financial corporations and households increased to BGN 48.722 billion (73.5% of projected GDP) reporting an annual growth of 15.5% whereas the increase in April 2009 was by 20.2%. Loans to Non- financial Corporations increased by 15.4% annually in May 2009 (20.5% in April 2009) and the growth of loans to households and NPISHs (Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households) in May was 15.7% compared to 19.8% in April.

 

In May 2009 the exchange rate BGN/USD decreased in comparison with the previous month from 1.48 to 1.43.