Profitability rising on structural growth drivers
Margins rising on increase in successor contracts and guarantee fees
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TENPO INNOVATION : Company revises up full-term FY23/3 guidance
FY23/3 Full-term Consolidated Financial Forecasts
|Share price (2/27)||1,272||23.3 P/E (CE)||25.9x|
|YH (23/2/27)||1,272||23.3 EV/EBITDA (CE)||14.5x|
|YL (22/1/27)||790||22.3 ROE (act)||21.1%|
|10YH (23/2/27)||1,272||22.3 ROIC (act)||18.6%|
|10YL (20/4/6)||477||22.12 P/B (act)||5.70x|
|Shrs out. (mn shrs)||17.674||22.3 DY (act)||1.29%|
|Mkt cap (¥ bn)||21.916|||||
|EV (¥ bn)||17.740|||||
|Equity ratio (12/31)||29.4%|||||
PART ①：RESTAURANT INDUSTRY UPDATE
Greater Tokyo number of new positive cases, compared to previous week (as of 2023.02.02)
FBI Quarterly Breakdown of Component Industries (seasonally adjusted)
Japan Foodservice Assoc.
JF was established in 1974 under approval of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. The number of regular and supporting member companies has reached 800, representing an estimated market size of approx. ¥25 trillion with 5 million workers.
JF Food Service Industry Market YoY Trend Survey – Monthly Results Reports
Net store closures of restaurants in the all-stores data on the right is clearly a lagging indicator relative to sales. The middle graph on the right suggests the impact from the global pandemic appears to be mitigating.
However, YoY figures, by definition, are versus the same month in the previous year, which can be deceptive after large declines.
In order to strip out the base level effect, from Mar-2021, the JF monthly survey results report added two new columns to include sales and no. of stores comparisons versus the corresponding month in 2019 (see lower graph on the right).
TENPO INNOVATION subleased store properties are uncorrelated with the market
According to the JF Food Service Industry Market YoY Trend Survey for December 2022, total stores declined -1.3% YoY, but relative to December 2019, declined -6.7%, yet to post a meaningful recovery. For the same period, subleased restaurant store properties for TENPO INNOVATION increased +14.0% YoY, and relative to December 2019, increased +31.7%. In other words, there is no correlation between TENPO INNOVATION subleased restaurant store properties and the underlying market trend for total stores. They are uncorrelated. The graph below shows the long-term monthly trend of the Company’s subleased restaurant store properties.
Expertise in finding and subleasing relatively small, low rent, vacated- furnished restaurant store properties, many in central Tokyo.
Monthly trend of subleased store properties: textbook definition of stable high growth
Monthly trend of sublease contract transactions during the pandemic
TENPO INNOVATION: Sustainable double-digit growth with high stability
The graph above shows the Company’s medium-term target for 5,500 subleased properties by the end of FY3/29, implying 6-year CAGR of +16.3% per year. This target was not randomly formulated by simply assigning a certain CAGR growth rate, rather, it is equivalent to a roughly 5% market share of the estimated 110,000 viable candidate restaurant store property universe in Tokyo and the three surrounding prefectures, based on the total number of 160,000 restaurants from the 2016 Economic Census of Business Activity. In order to achieve this target, a key initiative in the Company’s Medium-Term Management Plan is to boost its salesforce from the current 40 professionals (14 store procurement, 26 finding subleasing tenants) to 100 (30 store procurement, 70 finding subleasing tenants). Please refer to P10 in the REFERENCE section for details of initiatives in the MTP.
TOKYO × TENPO INNOVATION
The world’s largest number of passengers Shinjuku Station: 3.59 million
The world’s largest number of restaurants Metropolitan Tokyo: 79,601
The world’s top gastronomic city No. of Michelin-star restaurants: 226
We compete in this city with the highest potential.
The world’s most traversed pedestrians Shibuya
The world’s best subculture district Akihabara
There is more we can do.
99% untapped market.
We will not stop and will keep pushing forward.
It will become a big swell and envelop this city.
From because we can do it → so we will do it.
PART ② EARNINGS RESULTS
Company revises up full-term guidance after achieving 97% of OP in the first 9M
3Q cumulative (9M) results are summarized in the table below. Net sales increased +17.1% YoY, OP increased +59.5% YoY, GPM rose from 17.6% → 19.7%, and OPM rose from 7.6% → 10.4% (see margins graph on P8). In addition to the contribution from new high margin rent guarantee business, margins got a strong boost from the sale of 5 properties which included several large-scale profitable properties (see below). The number of signed contracts topped 100 for the fifth consecutive quarter at 131 (new record), and the number of profitable successor contracts also increased to 56. Total active restaurant store sublease properties reached 2,152 (+14.0% YoY).
The current business environment is extremely favorable for the business model given active turnover in restaurant openings and closings. TENPO INNOVATION specializes in properties having 1) relatively small scale and reasonable rent, 2) good location and 3) vacated furnished, and as such, are always in high demand. While the quarterly sales amount for RE sales fluctuates from quarter to quarter, it is achieving its target of one property sale and one procurement each quarter (3Q 5 sales and 5 acquisitions, 3Q-end inventory 3 properties). Although the primary objective of this business is to maintain a good relationship with RE brokers by paying meaningful commissions in return for good information on sublease candidates, the Company has recently also received interest from existing owner landlords to purchase properties, enhancing a stable supply pipeline without referrals. New store rent guarantee business is summarized on the next page.
Quarterly Trend of Sales Breakdown by Income Category (JPY mn)
TENPO INNOVATION FY23/3 3Q cumulative (9M) Consolidated Financial Results Summary
PART ③ TOPICS
Store rent guarantee business of Tenpo Safety Inc. commenced on April 1, 2022
Since the Revised Civil Code went into effect from April 2020, rent guarantees for store lease properties are expanding socially as a system that benefits both property landlords and tenants. In the past, the Company had tenants enter a rent guarantee contract automatically upon application, and the business was consigned to outside providers of rent guarantees. However, with over 17 years experience in subleasing over 2,000 restaurant store properties, and unique screening know-how, the Company is fully capable of assessing the risk of its subleased properties. The Board of Directors resolved on March 24, 2022 to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with the aim of keeping this income stream in-house.
According to the Company, every contract signed requires entering a rent guarantee agreement, and the rent guarantee fee is equivalent to roughly 1 month’s rent. The newly established Tenpo Safety Inc. handles 70-80% of these contracts, the remainder deemed to carry a higher level of risk are outsourced. Therefore, with signed contracts running at over 100 per quarter, roughly 80 contribute directly to Group profits each quarter. As described on the cover page, this business carries a virtual 100% OPM, and growth is linked directly to signed contracts. Along with the rise in profitable successor contracts, store rent guarantee business will be a structural driver of margins going forward.
Tenpo Safety Inc. Store Rent Guarantee Business Overview
PART ④ SHARE PRICE
3Y Share Price Chart, 13W/26W/52W MA, Volume and Trend of Valuations and Trend of Valuations
❶ The current P/E and EV/EBITDA are trading on 15% premiums, each to their respective historical averages. As previewed in our previous note, based on H1 progress ratios for OP and profit ATOP, full-term guidance was revised up on 3Q results.
❷ The equity ratio on the surface may appear low at 29.4%, however this reflects the fact that the B/S is comprised of a large amount of deposits paid and received. The Company is debt-free, and the B/S is extremely healthy.
❸ The company disclosed guidance for FY-end DPS of ¥16.00 per share, a dividend hike of ¥4.00 per share versus FY22/3.
❹ Short-term technical indicators have now become slightly overbought: 14d RSI 91.5, MACD 62.7 (signal 38.0, histogram 24.8), 26W divergence +26.8%, 52W +35.5%, Bollinger band +2.6 std. deviations (+2.6σ), fast stochastics %K 97.0, %D 88.2.
3Y Relative Share Price Performance and 5Y Trend of GP/OP and GPM/OPM
The share price had underperformed TOPIX over the last 2½ years, largely due to misperception from association with the struggling restaurant industry under COVID-19.
Not only has the Company resumed double-digit growth in net sales, growth in profits is accelerating due to the structural drivers of rising successor contracts and the new addition of extremely high margin rent guarantee business.
◆While the short-term investment opportunity due to underperformance based on market misperception about COVID-19 has been achieved, Omega Investment believes the long-term opportunity from the graph on P4 still offers large upside potential on a medium-term horizon.
TENPO INNOVATION Medium-Term Management Plan
Priority initiative to strengthen and enhance the sales force
The Company has the following medium-term and long-term targets.
By FY3/25, increase the Sales Dept. from 40 professionals to 100 (currently 14 in charge of property procurement → 30, 26 in charge of finding tenants → 70)
By FY3/29, increase the number of active subleased store properties to 5,500
As TENPO INNOVATION is the only specialist firm engaged in this restaurant store property subleasing business, this is no easy task, and cannot be accomplished by simply directing a headhunting firm to find the required personnel (they simply do not exist). Management fully recognizes that the way forward is to find suitable personnel and provide advanced level on-the-job training by existing professional staff. The point is that there is a lot of technical background knowledge required about property specifications such as the correct amperage requirements for electricity supply, drainage pipe diameter, etc., as well as expertise and know-how in retail properties, the restaurant industry, the city, restaurant facilities, and legal matters.
The Company summarizes its HR strategy for the Sales Dept. in a 3-point plan: ① increase staff, ② provide advanced OTJ training and ③ transfer capable sales staff to property procurement. Management envisions this extensive training for sales staff to find tenants for subleasing will take one year. Specifically, it will try to develop a standard method of passing on the expert knowledge involving the 237 items/steps from introduction of the property to concluding a subleasing agreement. Then, recognizing that procurement has a high level of difficulty and strategically holds the highest importance to future growth, it will optimize transfer and assignment of capable sales staff.
Then, in order to achieve the second long-term goal above of increasing the number of active subleased store properties to 5,500 by FY3/29, management will employ a strategy of ④ procurement area focus. Specifically, roughly 30 procurement staff will cover approximately 1,000 station areas and 2,000 real estate agents. For terminal stations with more than 1 million passengers and major real estate agencies, multiple procurement staff will be assigned. The target is to achieve procuring roughly 600 store properties per year (or 50 per month) by FY3/26.
Shareholder Return Policy
The Company’s basic policy is to pay stable dividends while strengthening its management base. The dividend per share (DPS) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023 was disclosed on February 2, 2023, marking a second consecutive dividend hike.
Trend of Dividends Paid and Payout Ratio
Major Shareholders (as of March 31, 2022)