Home Japanese
Omega Investment Co., Ltd.

Sansei Landic (Company Note 4Q update)

Share price (3/14) ¥821Dividend Yield (23/12 CE)3.53 %
52weeks high/low¥921/800ROE(TTM)9.93 %
Avg Vol (3 month) 12.9 thou shrsOperating margin (22/9)9.46 %
Market Cap ¥6.99 bnBeta (5Y Monthly)0.55
Enterprise Value ¥14.68 bnShares Outstanding 8.520 mn shrs
PER (23/12 CE)8.00 XListed market TSE Standard
PBR (22/12 act)0.61 X
Click here for the PDF version of this page
PDF Version

Despite a decline in sales, profits increased as profit margins improved. The real estate inventory for sale reached an unprecedented level due to a significant increase in the purchase.

Operating profit increased by 30% due to improved profit margins despite a fall in sales. Inventory volume hit a record high

In FY12/2022, Sansei Landic’s sales declined by 8% YoY, but operating profit increased by 32% as the profit margin exceeded expectations thanks to the robust property market and cost reductions. Sales of Leasehold land, Old unutilised properties and Freehold fell short of the company estimates, but sales of Old unutilised properties went up by 40% YoY, a significant increase. In addition, there was a significant increase in the purchase of real estate for sale, particularly for old unutlised properties. Real estate for sale at the end of FY12/2022 reached an unprecedented level of 23.6 billion yen, further confirming the sales growth from FY12/2023 onwards.

In the meantime, the company’s share price has remained in the 800-900 yen range for the past few years. Solid earnings growth is expected from FY12/2023 onwards, driven by a strong property market and a high inventory of real estate for sale. Given the low price to book, the shares look attractive.

Results for FY12/2022: Decrease in sales and profit; real estate inventories for sale at 23.6 billion yen

The company’s full-year results for FY12/2022 show sales of 15,533 million yen, a decrease of 7.7% YoY. As previously reported, the company transferred its construction business at the end of March 2022, and sales from that business are excluded for the April-December period (sales for the construction business during April-December of FY2021/12 were about 1.1 billion yen). Excluding this effect, sales in the real estate business alone were almost flat YoY, and in line with the revised company forecasts revealed on 16 January 2023. Regarding profits, the profit margins of both Leasehold land and Old unutilised properties came in higher than anticipated. Operating profit increased by 31.5% to 1,469 million yen thanks to the robust real estate market, cost reductions and marketing efforts. Net profit ATOP (attributable to owners of parent) increased significantly as corporate income tax decreased by more than 200 million yen due to the above-mentioned transfer of shares of the construction business subsidiary.

The real estate industry, which is focused on face-to-face sales, was significantly affected by the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020. The company has taken many measures to combat the infection, including introducing a remote working system, and has almost returned to normal business conditions. As a result, the number of projects has recovered to levels above pre-infection levels. Consequently, the purchase and inventory of real estate for sale have increased significantly.

In the past, the company’s sales tended to be higher in the 2Q and 4Q (see chart above), but since FY2021/12, sales have levelled off each quarter.

In the BS, real estate for sale has increased significantly by 10,356 million to 23,657 million yen since the end of FY2021/12. Interest-bearing debt increased by 8,291 million yen to  16,399 million yen due to a significant increase in purchases. As a result, total assets increased by 8,926 million yen to 28,976 million yen. The liability increase resulted in a 13.3 percentage point fall in the equity ratio to 38.1%.

 JPY, mn  Net sales  YoY
%
Oper.
profit
YoY
%
Ord.
profit
YoY
%
Profit
ATOP
YoY
%
EPS
(¥)
DPS
(¥)
2018/12 16,833 28.5 1,765 0.2 1,642 7.0 1,006 -9.4 119.62 21.00
2019/12 18,020 7.1 1,860 5.4 1,758 7.0 1,158 15.1 137.08 23.00
2020/12 17,774 -1.4 847 -54.5 709 -59.7 357 -69.1 42.34 25.00
2021/12 16,836 -5.3 1,117 31.9 999 40.9 609 70.5 73.56 26.00
2022/12 15,513 -7.7 1,469 31.5 1,283 28.4 1,060 73.9 129.61 28.00
2023/12 (CE) 17,119 10.2 1,594 8.5 1,305 1.7 836 -21.1 102.68 29.00

Quarterly sales and operating profit

Source: Omega Investment from company materials
  • Segment trends

Sales in the Real estate sales business were 15,311 million yen (-1.4%). Sales of Leasehold land and Freehold fell YoY and were below the company estimates. Although sales of Old unutilised properties also undercut the company forecast, they were significantly higher YoY. The company’s business model includes some large-scale deals, which take time to close, so sales fluctuate due to delays in sales booking and other factors. Therefore, the underachievement vis-a-vis the company plan should be considered a minor concern. Segment profit increased by 19.9% to 2,797 million yen. Profit margins are improving against the backdrop of a solid property market.

Leasehold land: Sales were 5,703 million yen (-30.5%). Last year’s results included a large property mixed with old unutilised properties, which led to a significant decrease. Sales were 9.6% below the company’s forecasts. The number of deals decreased by 14.5% to 294. The profit margin exceeded expectations, and profits were way higher than anticipated.

Old unutilised properties: Sales recorded 8,399 million yen (+38.1%). Sales rose YoY but were 10.3% below the company plan. The number of deals counted 42, declining 26.3% YoY. In addition to Greater Tokyo, the development of new projects for old unutilised properties progressed in Western Japan. This has been reflected in the recent strong performance of Old unutilised properties business.

Freehold: Sales were 787 million yen (-8.9%). Profits were largely in line with expectations, although sales came in 8.9% below the company estimate. The number of deals more than doubled to 18.

  • Purchase of real estate for sales: Large increases in each segment, reaching a record high

The purchase for the Real estate sales business increased significantly by 104.0% to 20,636 million (10,118 million last year). The breakdown is 7,274 million yen (+62.6%) for Leasehold land business, 11,979 million yen (+155.5%) for Old unutilised properties business and 1,383 million yen (+44.8%) for Freehold business.

Source: company materials
Source: Omega Investment, based on Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism data.

On top of the robust property market, the company has expanded the number of large properties requiring a rights adjustment period of more than one-year with managing risk. And it has been successful in the strategic broadening of business areas. These have resulted in a significant increase in purchases.

A sudden increase in inventories raises concerns over whether the company has the sales capacity to sell out and whether unsold items will become bad stock. However, the company states that it has no such concerns as it is proceeding cautiously with purchases and is increasing inventories in anticipation of sales in the next fiscal year and beyond. More than 80% of the properties were purchased less than a year ago, and the portfolio is regionally diversified with the metropolitan area (40%, composition at the end of December 2022), Western Japan (25%), Central Japan (26%) and Northern Japan (9%).

The above right-hand chart shows the trend of the company’s Real estate sales business in terms of sales and purchases. The purchase has been low since 3Q FY2020 due to a slowdown in sales activities caused by COVID-19. However, it has been recovering since FY2022. Purchasing has been particularly strong in the current 3Q, suggesting the company has secured the foundations for earnings growth in the coming years and beyond.

Forecasts for FY12/2023: 10% rise in sales and 8.5% increase in operating profit

For FY12/2023, the company forecasts a 10.2% increase in sales to 17,119 million yen, an 8.5% increase in operating profit to 1,594 million yen and a 21.1% decrease in net profit ATOP to 836 million yen. The decreasing net income is a reversal of the significant increase in net income in FY2022/12 due to a decrease in corporate tax, as mentioned. Excluding this impact, profit will grow YoY. Given the current high property inventories, this forecast looks conservative. The company plans to pay a dividend of 29 yen a share at the end of FY12/2023, the 10th consecutive year of a dividend hike.

Real estate sales business – sales forecast by business segment

Source: company materials

Progress of the Medium-term Plan (2022 – 2024)

Source: company materials

Progress of the Medium-term Plan (2022 – 2024)

On 14 February 2022, the company announced its new medium-term plan (2022-2024), ‘Transformation to 2024’. The plan reviews the previous medium-term plan and reveals the company’s targets for 2024 and the direction of the company’s future. The company has achieved sales growth at a CAGR of 10.6% between 2011 and 2019, but due to COVID-19, sales continued to decline in 2020 and 2021. In the new medium-term plan, the company has set the period 2022-2024 as a period of qualitative reinforcement after the temporary stagnation caused by the pandemic disease. It has set an operating profit target of 1.8 billion yen for FY2024 (FY2022 actual: 1.47 billion yen). In addition, the company intends to realise new growth by strengthening its financial base and accelerating up-front investment to list in the TSE Prime market.

Specifically, the company plans to: 1) expand existing businesses, 2) expand its business domains, and 3) strengthen its management foundation. For each of these three, the company has stated the following.

(1) Concerning expanding existing businesses, the company will build a stable organisation-led sales infrastructure from an individual-led one and promote the structuring of sales activities through data analysis and sales management. A new sales structure will be established for the post-pandemic period.

(2) To expand business domains, in addition to working on new schemes in existing businesses, the company aims to pursue regional redevelopment projects, M&A and alliances actively.

(3) Strengthening the management base will be achieved by strengthening the governance, reviewing the back-office structure, reinforcing the financial base and reforming human resource management.

The company also clarified its ROE policy, with a target of 9.0% or more for FY12/2024. The company’s ROE for FY12/2022 was 7.8%, normalising corporate taxation. However, the company has achieved above 10% in the past and should be able to achieve a much higher ROE.

Share price: Remains cheap, considering growth expectations for the next fiscal year and beyond

The company’s share price has been in a box of 800-900 yen for the past few years. This is because it was difficult to see the next growth story due to the stagnant periods caused by the pandemic disease. However, with a new medium-term plan, the currently robust property market, and current inventory levels, we expect the company’s earnings to return to a growth trajectory. Price-to-book is cheap (see the next page, the chart below), so the shares look attractive.

5-year stock price move

Share price compared to TOPIX (last three years)

Historical PBR (last five years)

Financial data (quarterly)

FY (¥mn)
2019/12
   
2020/12
   
2021/12
   
2022/12
   
 
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
[Sales by segment]
                               
Net sales
1,925
5,775
2,811
7,507
4,807
3,546
2,481
6,938
5,365
3,744
4,089
3,637
4,444
3,721
3,094
4,272
 Year-on-year basis
-33.0%
45.8%
-23.9%
15.0%
149.7%
-38.6%
-11.7%
-7.6%
11.6%
5.6%
64.8%
-47.6%
-17.2%
-0.6%
-24.3%
17.4%
 Real estate sales business
1,576
5,396
2,353
6,941
4,339
3,092
2,137
6,543
5,171
3,434
3,679
3,244
4,222
3,721
3,094
4,272
  Year-on-year basis
-42.8%
41.3%
-33.9%
17.5%
175.3%
-42.7%
-9.2%
-5.7%
19.2%
11.1%
72.1%
-50.4%
-18.3%
8.3%
-15.9%
31.7%
  Sales composition ratio
81.9%
93.4%
83.7%
92.5%
90.3%
87.2%
86.2%
94.3%
96.4%
91.7%
90.0%
89.2%
95.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
   Leasehold land
1,086
1,546
889
3,176
719
1,613
1,044
2,950
3,464
1,267
2,003
1,474
1,793
1,794
1,284
832
    Year-on-year basis
77.7%
-34.2%
-21.5%
6.1%
-33.8%
4.3%
17.4%
-7.1%
381.4%
-21.5%
91.9%
-50.0%
-48.2%
41.6%
-35.9%
-43.6%
    Sales composition ratio
56.4%
26.8%
31.6%
42.3%
15.0%
45.5%
42.1%
42.5%
64.6%
33.8%
49.0%
40.5%
40.3%
48.2%
41.5%
19.5%
   Old unutilised properties
351
3,657
1,283
2,108
2,180
897
872
3,101
1,419
2,025
1,488
1,151
2,024
1,556
1,649
3,170
    Year-on-year basis
-51.6%
225.4%
62.0%
-12.9%
520.6%
-75.5%
-32.0%
-47.1%
-34.9%
125.8%
70.6%
-62.9%
42.6%
-23.2%
10.8%
175.4%
    Sales composition ratio
18.2%
63.3%
45.6%
28.1%
45.4%
25.3%
35.1%
44.7%
26.4%
54.1%
36.4%
31.6%
45.5%
41.8%
53.3%
74.2%
   Freehold
28
88
55
1,532
1,305
465
106
395
191
46
101
526
315
266
49
157
    Year-on-year basis
-97.9%
-60.4%
-96.4%
290.8%
4560.7%
428.4%
92.7%
-74.2%
-85.3%
-90.1%
-4.7%
33.2%
64.9%
478.3%
-51.5%
-70.2%
    Sales composition ratio
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
20.4%
27.1%
13.1%
4.3%
5.7%
3.6%
1.2%
2.5%
14.5%
7.1%
7.1%
1.6%
3.7%
   Others
110
104
126
126
133
117
116
97
96
95
88
94
89
105
112
114
    Year-on-year basis
11.1%
-14.8%
5.0%
21.2%
21.5%
12.5%
-7.9%
-23.0%
-28.3%
-18.8%
-24.1%
-3.1%
-7.3%
10.5%
27.3%
21.3%
    Sales composition ratio
5.7%
1.8%
4.5%
1.7%
2.8%
3.3%
4.7%
1.4%
1.8%
2.5%
2.2%
2.6%
2.0%
2.8%
3.6%
2.7%
 Construction business
349
379
457
566
468
455
343
395
194
309
409
392
222
  Year-on-year basis
202.6%
166.5%
246.1%
44.0%
34.1%
19.8%
-24.9%
-30.1%
-58.4%
-32.1%
19.3%
-0.8%
14.0%
  Sales composition ratio
18.1%
6.6%
16.3%
7.5%
9.7%
12.8%
13.8%
5.7%
3.6%
8.3%
10.0%
10.8%
5.0%
                                 
[Statements of income]
                               
Net sales
1,925
5,775
2,811
7,507
4,807
3,546
2,481
6,938
5,365
3,744
4,089
3,637
4,444
3,721
3,096
4,272
Cost of sales
1,346
4,014
2,076
5,466
3,865
2,557
1,934
5,431
4,020
2,756
2,945
2,745
3,146
2,310
1,963
3,066
Gross profit
579
1,762
736
2,042
942
989
548
1,507
1,344
986
1,143
892
1,297
1,411
1,132
1,206
SG&A expenses
696
855
783
924
792
744
678
925
816
826
805
802
850
946
845
937
Operating income
-117
907
-47
1,117
150
245
-131
382
528
160
338
90
447
466
287
269
Non-operating income
4
28
5
5
9
5
51
5
12
8
8
6
7
7
6
7
Non-operating expenses
34
38
32
40
55
63
60
10
37
40
34
39
39
55
54
64
Ordinary income
-147
898
-75
1,083
103
188
-140
298
502
128
311
56
415
417
239
212
Extraordinary income
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
3
0
0
0
19
0
0
1
Extraordinary expenses
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
 
0
0
     
8
7
Loss before income taxes
-147
898
-75
1,083
103
188
-140
298
506
128
311
56
435
399
231
205
Total income taxes
-35
312
-26
349
36
72
-49
295
183
48
166
-4
59
60
36
54
Net income
-112
585
-48
734
67
114
-90
176
323
79
145
61
375
338
196
151
                                 
[Balance Sheets]
                               
Current assets
16,007
15,596
17,458
18,095
18,816
20,798
20,577
19,040
17,554
17,371
18,769
18,968
19.018
21,579
26,379
27,929
  Property for sale
13,129
12,290
14,890
13,493
14,655
16,923
17,312
14,424
13,493
12,586
13,134
13,301
13,304
15,152
20,775
23,657
Non-current assets
1,230
1,206
1,229
1,199
1,188
1,164
1,197
1,030
951
1,054
1,081
1,082
1,124
1,099
1,129
1,047
   Tangible assets
469
471
462
456
451
449
443
306
291
290
293
301
317
313
314
299
   Investments and other assets
694
666
689
669
668
653
691
655
595
703
732
730
761
743
769
701
Total assets
17,236
16,802
18,686
19,294
20,004
21,962
21,774
20,071
18,505
18,425
19,849
20,051
20,134
22,678
27,508
28,976
Current liabilities
6,904
6,996
9,135
9,047
9,883
7,767
7,699
5,772
5,517
7,540
8,633
8,731
8,153
8,871
11,168
12,606
   Short-term borrowings
5,645
5,360
7,702
7,203
7,729
6,352
6,676
4,463
4,272
6,105
7,171
7,367
5,025
5,057
6,960
10,192
Non-current liabilities
1,714
602
389
351
345
4,303
4,274
4,232
2,919
792
976
1,017
1,525
3,114
5,453
5,314
    Long-Term Borrowings
1,347
222
 
 
 
3,958
3,929
3,879
2,570
483
683
740
1,260
2,827
5,153
5,033
Total liabilities
8,618
7,598
9,524
9,399
10,228
12,071
11,973
10,004
8,436
8,332
9,609
9,749
9.679
11,968
16,622
17,920
Total net assets
8,618
9,204
9,162
9,895
9,776
9,891
9,801
10,067
10,070
10,093
10,240
10,301
10,463
10,692
10,886
11,056
Total shareholders’ equity
8,618
9,204
9,162
9,895
9,776
9,891
9,801
10,067
10,070
10,093
10,240
10,297
10,459
10,688
10,882
11,052
  Capital stock
811
811
814
814
818
818
818
818
818
820
820
820
821
822
824
833
  Legal capital reserve
772
772
775
775
779
779
779
779
779
781
781
781
782
785
786
796
  Retained earnings
7,031
7,616
7,568
8,302
8,174
8,289
8,200
8,465
8,577
8,656
8,802
8,863
9,023
9,362
9,557
9,708
  Stock acquisition right
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
Total liabilities and net assets
17,236
16,802
18,686
19,294
20,004
21,962
21,774
20,071
18,505
18,425
19,849
20,051
20,134
22,678
27,508
28,976
                                 
[Statements of cash flows]
                               
Cash flow from operating activities
 
-286
 
-419
 
-3,683
 
-916
 
2,110
 
1,704
 
1,184
 
-9,267
  Loss before income taxes
 
750
 
1,758
 
291
 
712
 
635
 
1,003
 
833
 
1,269
Cash flow from investing  activities
 
-27
 
-70
 
-9
 
-287
 
-26
 
-51
 
-205
 
-266
Cash flow from financing activities
 
-446
 
984
 
3,021
 
952
 
-2,129
 
-608
 
-559
 
7,971
Net increase in cash and cash equiv.
 
-760
 
493
 
-671
 
-251
 
-46
 
1,045
 
420
 
-1,563
Cash and cash equiv. at beginning
of period
 
3,465
 
3,465
 
3,958
 
3,958
 
3,707
 
3,707
 
4,752
 
4,752
Cash and cash equiv. at end of
period
 
2,704
 
3,958
 
3,287
 
3,707
 
3,661
 
4,752
 
5,173
 
3,188

Source: Omega Investment from Company materials.

Financial data

FY (¥mn) 2011/12 2012/12 2013/12 2014/12 2015/12 2016/12 2017/12 2018/12 2019/12 2020/12 2021/12 2022/12
[Statements of income]                        
Net sales 8,042 9,475 9,187 10,443 11,567 12,300 13,098 16,833 18,020 17,774 16,836 15,533
Cost of sales 5,557 7,061 6,254 7,055 7,798 8,344 8,566 12,028 12,902 13,788 12,467 10,485
Gross profit 2,485 2,415 2,934 3,389 3,769 3,957 4,532 4,805 5,119 3,986 4,368 5,047
SG&A expenses 1,735 1,898 2,014 2,184 2,470 2,510 2,770 3,039 3,258 3,139 3,250 3,578
Operating income 750 517 920 1,205 1,300 1,446 1,762 1,766 1,861 847 1,117 1,469
Non-operating income 135 5 12 14 15 15 12 28 42 88 34 26
Non-operating expenses 138 85 122 174 118 133 106 150 144 226 152 212
Ordinary income 747 437 810 1,044 1,196 1,329 1,669 1,643 1,759 709 999 1,283
Extraordinary income 54 23         97     32 3 20
Extraordinary expenses 4 17         94 104   29   33
Loss before income taxes 797 443 810 1,044 1,196 1,329 1,672 1,539 1,759 712 1,003 1,269
Total income taxes 353 209 354 418 472 475 561 533 600 355 394 209
Net income 444 233 456 626 724 854 1,111 1,007 1,159 358 609 1,060
                         
[Balance Sheets]                        
Current assets 5,251 6,257 8,023 7,836 10,366 9,749 15,874 15,745 18,094 19,040 18,968 27,929
  Property for sale 3,698 4,834 6,346 5,166 7,699 6,877 11,863 11,678 13,493 14,424 13,301 23,657
Non-current assets 834 836 895 957 1,031 1,083 1,042 1,032 1,199 1,030 1,082 1,047
   Tangible assets 136 135 569 603 572 591 467 458 456 306 301 299
   Investments and other assets 612 622 226 258 383 405 494 505 669 655 730 701
Total assets 6,085 7,093 8,919 8,793 11,398 10,833 16,916 16,777 19,294 20,071 20,050 28,976
Current liabilities 2,663 3,098 4,587 3,165 4,910 3,751 8,430 6,160 9,047 5,772 8,731 12,606
   Short-term borrowings 1,733 2,095 3,362 2,094 3,778 2,624 7,076 4,728 7,203 4,462 5,544 10,192
Non-current liabilities 181 562 465 367 453 226 479 1,710 351 4,232 1,017 5,314
    Long-Term Borrowings 147 526 419 320 180 88 364 1,320   3,879 740 5,033
Total liabilities 2,845 3,660 5,051 3,531 5,363 3,977 8,909 7,869 9,399 10,004 9,748 17,920
Total net assets 3,241 3,433 3,868 5,262 6,034 6,856 8,006 8,908 9,894 10,066 10,301 11,056
Total shareholders’ equity 3,241 3,433 3,868 5,262 6,034 6,852 8,002 8,904 9,890 10,062 10,297 11,052
  Capital stock 257 257 257 661 710 720 788 811 814 818 820 833
  Legal capital reserve 218 218 218 622 671 681 749 772 775 779 781 796
  Retained earnings 2,766 2,958 3,393 3,978 4,654 5,451 6,464 7,320 8,302 8,465 8,863 9,708
  Stock acquisition right           4 4 4 4 4 4 3
Total liabilities and net assets 6,085 7,093 8,919 8,793 11,398 10,833 16,916 16,777 19,294 20,071 20,050 28,976
                         
[Statements of cash flows]                        
Cash flow from operating activities 970 -953 -664 1,761 -1,451 1,611 -3,666 1,617 -420 -917 1,704 -9,267
  Loss before income taxes 797 443 810 1,044 1,196 1,329 1,672 1,539 1,759 712 1,003 1,269
Cash flow from investing  activities 127 -15 -175 -111 -116 -184 107 -64 -71 -288 -51 -266
Cash flow from financing activities -877 692 1,136 -612 1,588 -1,278 4,667 -1,495 984 953 -608 7,971
 Issuance of shares 406     800 97 21 37 45 6 9    
Net increase in cash and cash equiv. 219 -276 296 1,039 22 150 1,108 58 493 -251 1,045 -1,563
Cash and cash equiv. at beginning
of period
850 1,069 793 1,089 2,128 2,150 2,299 3,407 3,465 3,959 3,707 4,752
Cash and cash equiv. at end of
period
1,069 793 1,089 2,128 2,150 2,299 3,407 3,465 3,959 3,707 4,752 3,188
Free cash flow 1,097 -968 -839 1,650 -1,567 1,427 -3,559 1,553 -491 -1,205 1,653 -9,533

Source: Omega Investment from company materials