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Omega Investment Co., Ltd.

Sansei Landic (Company Note 1Q update)

Share price (22/6) ¥913Dividend Yield (23/12 CE)3.50 %
52weeks high/low¥934/800ROE(TTM)12.42 %
Avg Vol (3 month) 23.9 thou shrsOperating margin (TTM)12.18 %
Market Cap ¥7.83 bnBeta (5Y Monthly)0.53
Enterprise Value ¥20.00 bnShares Outstanding 8.584 mn shrs
PER (23/12 CE)8.31 XListed market TSE Standard
PBR (22/12 act)0.65 X
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Significant increase in sales and profits. The company revised up its forecasts.

Summary of 1Q results for FY12/2023: Significant increase in sales and profit and upward revision of forecasts.

1Q results showed a significant increase in sales and profits, with sales of Leasehold land and Old unutilised properties increasing by more than 50% YoY. At the same time, the company upwardly revised up its 2Q and full-year forecasts. As in the previous year, purchase volume remained strong, and inventories reached a new record high.

The company’s share price has increased since bottoming out at 802 yen on 13 January 2023. It temporarily hit a yearly high (at that time) of 927 yen before and after the announcement of financial results. In addition to abundant inventories, the strong property market has been a tailwind for the company’s good performance.

As part of the company’s review of its shareholder return policy, it has announced that it will pay a special dividend for the performance of FY12/2023 instead of abolishing its shareholder benefit plan. This should be received favourably, particularly by institutional investors.

Financial results for 1Q FY12/2023: Sales up 45.9%, operating profit 2.5 times higher YoY. 

Sales and profits significantly increased, with sales rising 45.9% YoY, to 6,486 million yen and operating profit growing by 150.0% to 1,118 million yen. Quarterly net income attributable to shareholders of the parent company rose 82.2% YoY to 683 million yen. Operating profit reached a record high on a quarterly basis.

As for sales by business segment, there was a significant increase in both Leasehold land (+50.9% YoY) and Old unutilised properties (+76.4% YoY). Since the 3Q of the previous year, the purchase volume of both segments has increased substantially, and inventories have built up, which has contributed to the significant increase in sales in the 1Q of the current fiscal year. 

In BS, properties for sale increased by 746 million yen to 24,404 million yen from the end of FY12/2022. Around 90% of the properties were purchased within the last two years and are scheduled to be sold in the current or next financial year or later. Interest-bearing debt decreased by 337 million yen from the end of FY12/2022, as short-term borrowings increased by 602 million yen, while long-term borrowings decreased by 939 million due to the sale of large properties. Total assets increased by 650 million yen to 29,626 million yen. At the end of 1Q, the equity ratio was 39.0%, up 0.9 percentage points.

Real Estate Sales business trends

The company will operate with a single segment of Real Estate Sales business from this year following the transfer at the end of March 2022 of all shares in One’s Life Home Co., Ltd., which runs a construction business. In 1Q FY12/2022, the construction business was included in sales. Sales of Real Estate Sales business alone increased by 53.6% YoY.

 JPY, mn  Net
sales
 
YoY
%
Oper.
profit
YoY
%
Ord.
profit
YoY
%
Profit
ATOP
YoY
%
EPS
(¥)
DPS
(¥)
2019/12 18,020 7.1 1,860 5.4 1,758 7.0 1,158 15.1 137.08 23.00
2020/12 17,774 -1.4 847 -54.5 709 -59.7 357 -69.1 42.34 25.00
2021/12 16,836 -5.3 1,117 31.9 999 40.9 609 70.5 73.56 26.00
2022/12 15,513 -7.7 1,469 31.5 1,283 28.4 1,060 73.9 129.61 28.00
2023/12 (Prev. CE) 17,119 10.2 1,594 8.5 1,305 1.7 836 -21.1 102.68 29.00
2023/12 (Revised CE) 20,500 32.0 1,700 15.7 1,400 9.1 900 -15.1 109.55 32.00
2022/12 1Q 4,444 -17.2 447 -15.4 415 -17.4 375 16.1 45.51
2023/12 1Q 6,486 45.9 1,118 150.0 1,045 151.6 683 82.2 83.48

Quarterly sales and operating profit

Source: Omega Investment from company materials.

Leasehold land Sales were 2,707 million yen (+50.9%). Sales grew 50% YoY, backed by solid purchases in the recent time. This was also significantly higher than planned, exceeding the company estimate by 64.7%. The number of contracts increased by 17.4% to 101. Sales of Leasehold land in the Tokyo metropolitan area were robust. As a result, the profit margin also exceeded expectations.

Old unutilised properties: Sales recorded 3,571 million yen (+76.4%). Old unutilised properties have performed well, particularly in western Japan. The benefits of the reinforced sales structure in the region in recent years are becoming apparent. Sales came in 18.1% above the plan. The number of projects was 23, a significant increase of 130.0% YoY. Profits also erred on the upside.

Freehold: Sales were 101 million yen (-67.9%). Due to changes in the timing of property sales, sales, and profits were below forecasts and lower YoY.

Purchase of real estate for sales :Significant increase in purchases of Leasehold land, reaching a record high

Purchases in Real Estate Sales business increased significantly by 71.3% YoY, recording 5,063 million yen.

Since 3Q FY12/2022, the purchase has remained high, exceeding 5 billion yen on a quarterly basis. This includes 3,486 million yen for Leasehold land (up 170.5%), 1,455 million yen for Old unutilised properties (up 5.2%), and 121 million yen for Freehold (down 57.1%). Purchasing of Leasehold land was particularly strong, with a record quarterly figure. Properties for sales also registered a record quarterly purchase.

This is attributed to 1) the strong property market in recent years (see left-hand chart on the following page); 2) the expansion of large properties requiring a rights adjustment period of more than one year after risk management; and 3) the success of the strategic expansion of areas, which has led to a significant increase in purchases.

Source: company materials.

The company continues to purchase properties cautiously, looking to increase its inventory to sell them in the next financial year or later. Around 90% of the properties were purchased within the last two years. The company schedules to sell them in the current or next financial year or later.

The above right-hand chart shows the trend of purchases and sales in Real Estate Sales business. Purchases were low from 3Q FY12/2020 as a result of a slowdown in sales activities due to COVID-19 but had been recovering since the outset of FY12/2022. In particular, the company has been significantly increasing its purchase since the 3Q of FY12/2022, the benefits of which have kicked in the 1Q results.

Forecasts for FY12/2023 Significant upward revisions for both 1H and a full year.

The company has revised up its 1H and full-year forecasts for FY12/2023 in light of its 1Q performance and the current situation. See the table below for revised 1H forecasts. This is a significant upward revision of 33.0% for sales and more than 50% for operating income. YoY, sales are expected to increase by 40% and operating income by 50%. Regarding the 1Q progress ratios vs company forecasts, profit is notably fast, suggesting the likelihood of a further upward revision.

Revision of the consolidated forecast for 2Q (accumulative) FY12/2023.

 JPY, mn  Net sales  Oper.
profit
Ord.
profit
Profit
ATOP
EPS
(¥)
Previous forecast (A) 8,649 913 747 484 59.44
Revised forecast (B) 11,500 1,400 1,250 800 97.47
Change (B – A) 2,850 486 502 315
Percentage change (%) 33.0 53.2 67.3 65.2
Actual results for 2Q FY12/2022 8,165 913 832 713 86.67
Revised forecast, YoY (%) 40.8 53.3 50.2 12.2 12.2
Progress ratio as at 1Q (%) 56.4 79.9 83.6 85.4

Source: company materials

See table on next page for revised full-year forecasts. This is an upward revision of 19.7% and 6.6% for sales and operating income, respectively. YoY, sales and operating income are expected to grow by 32.0% and 15.7%, respectively. As of 1Q, the company has made about 30% progress in terms of sales and about 2/3 in terms of operating income. As already mentioned, the company’s real estate inventory has built up significantly, and given that the real estate market remains strong, the revised estimates look achievable.

Revised full-year consolidated forecasts for FY12/2023.

 JPY, mn  Net sales  Oper.
profit
Ord.
profit
Profit
ATOP
EPS
(¥)
Previous forecast (A) 17,119 1,594 1,305 836 102.68
Revised forecast (B) 20,500 1,700 1,400 900 109.55
Change (B – A) 3,380 105 94 63
Percentage change (%) 19.7 6.6 7.3 7.6
Actual results for  FY12/2022 15,533 1,469 1,283 1,060 129.61
Revised forecast, YoY (%) 32.0 15.7 9.1 -15.1 -15.4
Progress ratio as at 1Q (%) 31.6 65.8 74.6 75.9

Source: company materials

 New shareholder return policy announced: shareholder benefit plans to be abolished and special dividends to be paid. 

In conjunction with the announcement of its 1Q results, the company announced a new shareholder return policy. The shareholder benefit plan, which was previously in place, will be discontinued with the last distribution to shareholders as at end-June 2023. Instead, the company plans to pay a special dividend of 3 yen a share in addition to the ordinary dividend of 29 yen for the performance of FY12/2023. From FY12/2024 onwards, the company states it will further fulfil its shareholder return policy and may consider interim dividends and share buybacks.

Given that individual shareholders have favoured the company’s shareholder benefit plan, some investors may be disappointed, but it is in line with fairness and the demands of institutional investors.

The planned dividend for FY2023 is 29 yen of ordinary dividend plus a special dividend of 3 yen, for a total of 32 yen a share. This will mark the 10th consecutive year of dividend increases since 2013.

Share price: Remains cheap, considering growth expectations for the next fiscal year and beyond

The company’s share price temporarily reached a yearly high of 927 yen around the announcement of the financial results. The share price has been hovering around 900 yen since then, bottoming out at 802 yen on 13 January 2023. The strong results and the upward earnings revisions have solidified the uptrend. In addition to an abundant inventory of both Leasehold land and Old unutilised properties, the property market is expected to remain strong for some time to come, which will also support good results and should prove positive for the share price.

Meanwhile, PBR of the company’s shares is 0.65, well below 1x and the average of the past five years (diagram below on the next page). In addition to the company’s strong performance, it has also shown a proactive attitude towards new shareholder return measures, and we expect the market to re-evaluate the company’s performance.

5-year stock price move

Share price compared to TOPIX (last three years)

Historical PBR (last five years)

Financial data (quarterly)

FY (¥mn) 2020/12     2021/12     2022/12     2023/12
  1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
[Sales by segment]                          
Net sales 4,807 3,546 2,481 6,938 5,365 3,744 4,089 3,637 4,444 3,721 3,094 4,272 6,486
 Year-on-year basis 149.7% -38.6% -11.7% -7.6% 11.6% 5.6% 64.8% -47.6% -17.2% -0.6% -24.3% 17.4% 45.9%
 Real estate sales business 4,339 3,092 2,137 6,543 5,171 3,434 3,679 3,244 4,222 3,721 3,094 4,272 6,486
  Year-on-year basis 175.3% -42.7% -9.2% -5.7% 19.2% 11.1% 72.1% -50.4% -18.3% 8.3% -15.9% 31.7% 53.6%
  Sales composition ratio 90.3% 87.2% 86.2% 94.3% 96.4% 91.7% 90.0% 89.2% 95.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
   Leasehold land 719 1,613 1,044 2,950 3,464 1,267 2,003 1,474 1,793 1,794 1,284 832 2,707
    Year-on-year basis -33.8% 4.3% 17.4% -7.1% 381.4% -21.5% 91.9% -50.0% -48.2% 41.6% -35.9% -43.6% 51.0%
    Sales composition ratio 15.0% 45.5% 42.1% 42.5% 64.6% 33.8% 49.0% 40.5% 40.3% 48.2% 41.5% 19.5% 41.7%
   Old unutilised properties 2,180 897 872 3,101 1,419 2,025 1,488 1,151 2,024 1,556 1,649 3,170 3,571
    Year-on-year basis 520.6% -75.5% -32.0% -47.1% -34.9% 125.8% 70.6% -62.9% 42.6% -23.2% 10.8% 175.4% 76.4%
    Sales composition ratio 45.4% 25.3% 35.1% 44.7% 26.4% 54.1% 36.4% 31.6% 45.5% 41.8% 53.3% 74.2% 55.1%
   Freehold 1,305 465 106 395 191 46 101 526 315 266 49 157 101
    Year-on-year basis 4560.7% 428.4% 92.7% -74.2% -85.3% -90.1% -4.7% 33.2% 64.9% 478.3% -51.5% -70.2% -67.9%
    Sales composition ratio 27.1% 13.1% 4.3% 5.7% 3.6% 1.2% 2.5% 14.5% 7.1% 7.1% 1.6% 3.7% 1.6%
   Others 133 117 116 97 96 95 88 94 89 105 112 114 106
    Year-on-year basis 21.5% 12.5% -7.9% -23.0% -28.3% -18.8% -24.1% -3.1% -7.3% 10.5% 27.3% 21.3% 19.1%
    Sales composition ratio 2.8% 3.3% 4.7% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 2.7% 1.6%
 Construction business 468 455 343 395 194 309 409 392 222
  Year-on-year basis 34.1% 19.8% -24.9% -30.1% -58.4% -32.1% 19.3% -0.8% 14.0%
  Sales composition ratio 9.7% 12.8% 13.8% 5.7% 3.6% 8.3% 10.0% 10.8% 5.0%
                           
[Statements of income]                          
Net sales 4,807 3,546 2,481 6,938 5,365 3,744 4,089 3,637 4,444 3,721 3,096 4,272 6,486
Cost of sales 3,865 2,557 1,934 5,431 4,020 2,756 2,945 2,745 3,146 2,310 1,963 3,066 4,320
Gross profit 942 989 548 1,507 1,344 986 1,143 892 1,297 1,411 1,132 1,206 2,166
SG&A expenses 792 744 678 925 816 826 805 802 850 946 845 937 1,084
Operating income 150 245 -131 382 528 160 338 90 447 466 287 269 1,118
Non-operating income 9 5 51 5 12 8 8 6 7 7 6 7 8
Non-operating expenses 55 63 60 10 37 40 34 39 39 55 54 64 80
Ordinary income 103 188 -140 298 502 128 311 56 415 417 239 212 1,045
Extraordinary income 0 0 0   3 0 0 0 19 0 0 1
Extraordinary expenses 0 0 0     0 0       8 7
Loss before income taxes 103 188 -140 298 506 128 311 56 435 399 231 205 1,045
Total income taxes 36 72 -49 295 183 48 166 -4 59 60 36 54 361
Net income 67 114 -90 176 323 79 145 61 375 338 196 151 683
                           
[Balance Sheets]                          
Current assets 18,816 20,798 20,577 19,040 17,554 17,371 18,769 18,968 19.018 21,579 26,379 27,929 28,392
  Property for sale 14,655 16,923 17,312 14,424 13,493 12,586 13,134 13,301 13,304 15,152 20,775 23,657 24,404
Non-current assets 1,188 1,164 1,197 1,030 951 1,054 1,081 1,082 1,124 1,099 1,129 1,047 1,233
   Tangible assets 451 449 443 306 291 290 293 301 317 313 314 299 312
   Investments and other assets 668 653 691 655 595 703 732 730 761 743 769 701 873
Total assets 20,004 21,962 21,774 20,071 18,505 18,425 19,849 20,051 20,134 22,678 27,508 28,976 29,626
Current liabilities 9,883 7,767 7,699 5,772 5,517 7,540 8,633 8,731 8,153 8,871 11,168 12,606 13,658
   Short-term borrowings 7,729 6,352 6,676 4,463 4,272 6,105 7,171 7,367 5,025 5,057 6,960 10,192 11,151
Non-current liabilities 345 4,303 4,274 4,232 2,919 792 976 1,017 1,525 3,114 5,453 5,314 4,405
    Long-Term Borrowings   3,958 3,929 3,879 2,570 483 683 740 1,260 2,827 5,153 5,033 4,093
Total liabilities 10,228 12,071 11,973 10,004 8,436 8,332 9,609 9,749 9.679 11,968 16,622 17,920 18,064
Total net assets 9,776 9,891 9,801 10,067 10,070 10,093 10,240 10,301 10,463 10,692 10,886 11,056 11,561
Total shareholders’ equity 9,776 9,891 9,801 10,067 10,070 10,093 10,240 10,297 10,459 10,688 10,882 11,052 11,562
  Capital stock 818 818 818 818 818 820 820 820 821 822 824 833 860
  Legal capital reserve 779 779 779 779 779 781 781 781 782 785 786 796 823
  Retained earnings 8,174 8,289 8,200 8,465 8,577 8,656 8,802 8,863 9,023 9,362 9,557 9,708 10,164
  Stock acquisition right 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3
Total liabilities and net assets 20,004 21,962 21,774 20,071 18,505 18,425 19,849 20,051 20,134 22,678 27,508 28,976 29,626
                           
[Statements of cash flows]                          
Cash flow from operating activities   -3,683   -916   2,110   1,704   1,184   -9,267  
  Loss before income taxes   291   712   635   1,003   833   1,269  
Cash flow from investing  activities   -9   -287   -26   -51   -205   -266  
Cash flow from financing activities   3,021   952   -2,129   -608   -559   7,971  
Net increase in cash and cash equiv.   -671   -251   -46   1,045   420   -1,563  
Cash and cash equiv.
at beginning of period
  3,958   3,958   3,707   3,707   4,752   4,752  
Cash and cash equiv.
at end of period
  3,287   3,707   3,661   4,752   5,173   3,188  

Source: Omega Investment from company materials

Financial data

FY (¥mn) 2011/12 2012/12 2013/12 2014/12 2015/12 2016/12 2017/12 2018/12 2019/12 2020/12 2021/12 2022/12
[Statements of income]                        
Net sales 8,042 9,475 9,187 10,443 11,567 12,300 13,098 16,833 18,020 17,774 16,836 15,533
 YoY change (%) 8.5 17.8 -3.0 13.7 10.8 6.3 6.5 28.5 7.1 -1.4 -5.3 -7.7
Cost of sales 5,557 7,061 6,254 7,055 7,798 8,344 8,566 12,028 12,902 13,788 12,467 10,485
Gross profit 2,485 2,415 2,934 3,389 3,769 3,957 4,532 4,805 5,119 3,986 4,368 5,047
SG&A expenses 1,735 1,898 2,014 2,184 2,470 2,510 2,770 3,039 3,258 3,139 3,250 3,578
Operating income 750 517 920 1,205 1,300 1,446 1,762 1,766 1,861 847 1,117 1,469
 YoY change (%) 14.5 31.0 77.9 30.9 7.9 11.3 21.9 0.2 5.4 -54.5 31.9 31.5
 Operating income margin (%)) 9.3 5.5 10.0 11.5 11.2 11.8 13.5 10.5 10.3 4.8 6.6 9.5
Non-operating income 135 5 12 14 15 15 12 28 42 88 34 26
Non-operating expenses 138 85 122 174 118 133 106 150 144 226 152 212
Ordinary income 747 437 810 1,044 1,196 1,329 1,669 1,643 1,759 709 999 1,283
Extraordinary income 54 23         97     32 3 20
Extraordinary expenses 4 17         94 104   29   33
Loss before income taxes 797 443 810 1,044 1,196 1,329 1,672 1,539 1,759 712 1,003 1,269
Total income taxes 353 209 354 418 472 475 561 533 600 355 394 209
Net income attributable
to owner of parent
444 233 456 626 724 854 1,111 1,007 1,159 358 609 1,060
 YoY change (%) 47.6 47.5 95.4 37.5 15.6 17.9 30.2 -9.4 15.1 -69.1 70.5 73.9
 Margin (%)                        
                         
[Balance Sheets]                        
Current assets 5,251 6,257 8,023 7,836 10,366 9,749 15,874 15,745 18,094 19,040 18,968 27,929
  Property for sale 3,698 4,834 6,346 5,166 7,699 6,877 11,863 11,678 13,493 14,424 13,301 23,657
Non-current assets 834 836 895 957 1,031 1,083 1,042 1,032 1,199 1,030 1,082 1,047
   Tangible assets 136 135 569 603 572 591 467 458 456 306 301 299
   Investments and other assets 612 622 226 258 383 405 494 505 669 655 730 701
Total assets 6,085 7,093 8,919 8,793 11,398 10,833 16,916 16,777 19,294 20,071 20,050 28,976
Current liabilities 2,663 3,098 4,587 3,165 4,910 3,751 8,430 6,160 9,047 5,772 8,731 12,606
   Short-term borrowings 1,733 2,095 3,362 2,094 3,778 2,624 7,076 4,728 7,203 4,462 5,544 10,192
Non-current liabilities 181 562 465 367 453 226 479 1,710 351 4,232 1,017 5,314
    Long-Term Borrowings 147 526 419 320 180 88 364 1,320   3,879 740 5,033
Total liabilities 2,845 3,660 5,051 3,531 5,363 3,977 8,909 7,869 9,399 10,004 9,748 17,920
Total net assets 3,241 3,433 3,868 5,262 6,034 6,856 8,006 8,908 9,894 10,066 10,301 11,056
Total shareholders’ equity 3,241 3,433 3,868 5,262 6,034 6,852 8,002 8,904 9,890 10,062 10,297 11,052
  Capital stock 257 257 257 661 710 720 788 811 814 818 820 833
  Legal capital reserve 218 218 218 622 671 681 749 772 775 779 781 796
  Retained earnings 2,766 2,958 3,393 3,978 4,654 5,451 6,464 7,320 8,302 8,465 8,863 9,708
  Stock acquisition right           4 4 4 4 4 4 3
Total liabilities and net assets 6,085 7,093 8,919 8,793 11,398 10,833 16,916 16,777 19,294 20,071 20,050 28,976
Equity ratio (%) 53.3 48.4 43.4 59.8 52.9 63.3 47.3 53.1 51.3 50.1 51.4 38.1
                         
[Statements of cash flows]                        
Cash flow from operating activities 970 -953 -664 1,761 -1,451 1,611 -3,666 1,617 -420 -917 1,704 -9,267
  Loss before income taxes 797 443 810 1,044 1,196 1,329 1,672 1,539 1,759 712 1,003 1,269
Cash flow from investing  activities 127 -15 -175 -111 -116 -184 107 -64 -71 -288 -51 -266
Cash flow from financing activities -877 692 1,136 -612 1,588 -1,278 4,667 -1,495 984 953 -608 7,971
 Issuance of shares 406     800 97 21 37 45 6 9    
Net increase in cash and cash equiv. 219 -276 296 1,039 22 150 1,108 58 493 -251 1,045 -1,563
Cash and cash equiv.
at beginning of period
850 1,069 793 1,089 2,128 2,150 2,299 3,407 3,465 3,959 3,707 4,752
Cash and cash equiv.
at end of period
1,069 793 1,089 2,128 2,150 2,299 3,407 3,465 3,959 3,707 4,752 3,188
Free cash flow 1,097 -968 -839 1,650 -1,567 1,427 -3,559 1,553 -491 -1,205 1,653 -9,533

Source: Omega Investment from company materials